Somalia

This is a critical time for Somalia. There are less than 90 days until the end of the transitional federal government’s mandate on 20 August 2012, and the stakes are high for the delivery of the key components of the political ‘roadmap’, not least a new constitution. At the same time, the five-year insurgency that has wracked the south and central regions has entered a new phase, with fighting now along numerous fronts as the African Union peacekeeping mission has expanded to include forces from Kenya, with more promised from Djibouti and Sierra Leone. Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qa’ida-linked conglomerate, appears to be on the back foot: it has been bruised by Somali Army and AMISOM offensives and is internally divided. But the complex, changeable dynamics of Somalia’s recent past suggest that it is too early to call time on this persistent opponent of the TFG.

In response to the changing dynamics within Somalia and the growing regional and international interest in the country’s future, RUSI and the Brenthurst Foundation convened a one-day roundtable discussion in London in November 2011 to discuss the key issues facing Somalia during this time of political transition. This report summarises the roundtable discussion. It also includes three important essays from leading Somalis and Somalia observers, each of which emphasise the centrality of Somalis in shaping their own political future, as well as the continued role of the regional and international community; together with a special focus on the situation of women in Somalia during this time of change.

The overall purpose of the High Level Panel (October 2nd-3rd 2012) was to take stock of the challenges when implementing security and justice reforms at a national level; to identify lessons that could be applied to other SSR processes in the Eastern African region; and to look at what role regional and international actors could optimally have in SSR initiatives. The High Level Panel brought together over 200 SSR policy makers and practitioners to unpack the key issues faced by both those implementing and leading SSR. Those attending the event were experts responsible for leading and implementing processes in Burundi, Somalia and South Sudan, as well as key donors, regional and multilateral organisations and representatives from the African Security Sector Network and other civil society organisations. 

This report reflects the informal conclusions drawn from the selected country-case studies as well as thematic debates at the High-Level Panel. 

The unending saga of human rights deprivations in Somalia over the past two decades have now been compounded by another humanitarian crisis. The devastating drought currently ravaging the Horn of Africa, compounded by conflict and the denial of
humanitarian assistance, has resulted in a declaration of famine in two regions of South-Central Somalia. Already in the course of the independent expert’s sixth visit to Somalia, in February 2011, the drought had taken a heavy toll on livestock and food reserves. The full impact of the drought can be seen on the Somali population, a large number of whom have been forced to flee their homes in search of food and succour. Deaths caused by malnutrition have been documented among new arrivals in refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia and into Mogadishu. The United Nations has already warned that, unless urgent measures are taken to increase the response, the famine will spread to the whole of southern Somalia within the next two months. This should not be allowed to happen and become another blot on the conscience of mankind.

Apart from the drought and famine, the armed conflicts between Islamist insurgents and the Transitional Federal Government, supported by the troops of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), continues to cause deaths and injury to the civilian
population. Indiscriminate shelling and firing in urban areas, and suicide and improvised explosive attacks by the insurgent group Al-Shabaab, are the main causes.

Recent offensive has resulted in territorial gains for AMISOM and Transitional Federal Government forces. On 6 August 2011, Al-Shabaab announced its withdrawal from positions it had held in Mogadishu for nearly two years. Although Al-Shabaab has been
under military pressure in Mogadishu from the combined operations of AMISOM and Transitional Federal Government forces forsome time, its sudden withdrawal came as a surprise.

To view this publication, follow this link.

This fact finding mission to Nairobi, Kenya and Mogadishu, Somalia was conducted by the Danish Immigration Service (DIS), Documentation and Research Division. The purpose of the mission was to gather updated Country of Origin Information (COI) on South-Central (S-C) Somalia on matters related to security and human rights issues, including freedom of movement.

The mission took place between 30 January and 19 February 2012 and comprised a series of interviews with interlocutors in Nairobi and in Mogadishu. The delegation consulted with non-governmental organisations, international non-governmental organisations, international organisations, government officials and individuals.

To view this publication, follow this link.

From South Africa to Sudan and Burundi to Côte d’Ivoire, negotiations over security arrangements have been critical to successful stabilization and peacebuilding. Although different in each case, the central lesson is the importance of treating security processes seriously and not simply as technical addendums to political agreements.

To view this publication, follow this link.

Years of conflict, soaring unemployment and poor prospects, combined with lack of political leadership, have provided fertile ground for the emergence of a number of militias and violent extremist groups, including al-Shabaab. The Ethiopian presence in Somalia during 2007 – 2008 as well as the atrocities committed by both Somali and Ethiopian soldiers, contributed greatly to the support rebel groups received from the population. In spite of the Ethiopian withdrawal in January 2009 and the establishment of the national unity government, al-Shabaab and the Hizb ul-Islam alliance continued their warfare, demanding that the peacekeeping forces of the African Union (AMISOM) leave the country.

However, the terrorist attacks against AMISOM and governmental targets in Mogadishu also affect civilians, and radical Islam is alien to most Somalis. The support which these Islamist groups have received from the population has, according to most observers, significantly reduced in recent years. In December 2010, a weakened Hizb ul-Islam was dissolved, and several of the organisation's members joined al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab continues to support poor, unemployed young men, teenagers and children, and to provide them with clothing, food and weapons. Al-Shabaab is currently in a strained military and economic situation, and there are indications of certain changes in the group's recruitment pattern (interviews with international representatives and Somali sources in Nairobi, March 2011).

To view the publication, follow this link.

The European Union’s mission to contribute to the training of the Somali Security Forces is the first military training mission launched by the EU. Deployed in April 2010, EUTM is nearing the end of its mandate: the training of the recruits will be completed by mid-July 2011. The mission was carried out in close coordination with the US, the African Union and the Ugandan army, and contributed to the EU’s visibility in East Africa. However, given the overall feebleness of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and its inability to implement reform, the political effectiveness of the mission is doubtful. In the current context, EUTM should not be extended beyond its original mandate. The EU and other donors should instead support more functional local administrations and make future assistance to the TFG contingent upon tangible progress towards completing transitional tasks, a normalization of political life, and restoring the provision of public services.

Between October 2nd and 3rd 2012, DCAF’s ISSAT organised a High Level Panel (HLP) on the Challenges and Opportunities for Security Sector Reform1 (SSR) in East Africa, in partnership with the United Nations Office in Nairobi (UNON), the Governments of Burundi, Kenya, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Somalia and South Sudan, the African Development Bank (AfDB), the African Union (AU), East African Community (EAC), Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Security Sector Network (ASSN). It was attended by over two hundred SSR policy makers and practitioners.

This report seeks to take those discussions further, including more of the points raised by participants during the HLP, and adding in lessons from experience gathered from individual missions and related trainings. Three case studies featured in the HLP (Burundi, Somalia and South Sudan) and as such provide many of the examples, although the report also draws from examples beyond East Africa. An introductory section on SSR in each of these countries is provided in section one and full case studies are included in the annex.

It is hoped that this report, which keeps to the same thematic areas as those covered in the HLP, will offer information on contemporary thinking in security and justice reform, as well as provide some recommendations and examples of good practice to those interested in or engaged in SSR.