Effects Estimate

The Effects Estimate provides a framework for:

• Understanding the contemporary operating environment;
• Estimating second and third order effects;
• Managing risk;
• Warning of the need for actions-on unintended consequences;
• Implementing measures of effect;
• Improving the overall effect and ‘stickiness’ of a project.

This Estimate is especially suitable at project level, and can be carried out as a quick, or more in depth, analysis. With use of subject matter experts and regional or local area knowledge, the Effects Estimate does not need to take a lot of time. As with any analytical process, the resulting analysis is dependent on the quality of the data input to the process.

There are six basic steps:

  1. Define the project
  2. List negatives within the implementing community
  3. List positives within the implementing community
  4. Refine the project to enhance positives and diminish negatives
  5. Manage risks
  6. Build and monitor measures of effect

For a full description download the pdf.

The Effects Estimate has its origins in mainstream development work on conflict sensitivity and Do No Harm. It is adapted to apply across the security sector, including military and police reform / assistance projects, and combines important elements in risk management and evaluation / assessment of effect.


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