Christopher S. Chivvis


Libya After Qaddafi: Lessons and Implications for the Future

"Since the 2011 overthrow of the Qaddafi regime, Libya's path had been tumultuous. Despite a number of advantages compared with other post-conflict societies, progress on political, economic, and security fronts has fallen far behind, generating frustration and threatening the recovery altogether. Libya has teetered on the brink of a relapse into civil war on more than one occasion in the past year. In the absence of a functioning state, jihadist groups have made inroads. The broader Sahel and Maghreb regions, meanwhile, are becoming more and more fragile and southern Libya verges on becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda-linked groups recently chased from Mali by French military forces.

The right international approach to Libya could nevertheless still help avert a more serious breakdown and real damage to U.S. and European regional and global interests - above all counter-terrorism and the stability of world energy markets.

This study examines what has been accomplished in Libya to date, draws lessons from the experience, and identifies some possible ways forward."