Policy and Research Papers

Tajikistan: Revolutionary Situation or Resilient State?

Since 2008, after a period of relative growth and social stability, the situation in Tajikistan has been steadily deteriorating, leading to increased speculation that the country could emerge as a failing state. Given its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the role it plays in the Northern Distribution Network (a line that funnels military supplies from Europe to NATO ISAF troops in Afghanistan), the ramifications of potential instability in Tajikistan would resonate beyond the country. The current briefing assesses to what extent such danger is in fact real by outlining developments in the key areas of economy and security, and examining the regime’s capacity to cope with emerging challenges. The briefing concludes with recommendations for the EU and an outlook for future.

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Tajikistan's Domestic and Regional Priorities and Challenges

This paper summarizes a roundtable discussion on the domestic, regional and international political context of Tajikistan and various challenges it faces in the realm of state and human security.


Tajikistan Evolution of the Security Sector and the War on Terror

This paper is concerned with the functioning of the security sector in Tajikistan. It argues that many aspects of security are outsourced to external players – most notably Russia, - while the regime can concentrate on the tasks it is most interested in. According to the author, heightened attention of other players has made this tendency even more pronounced, as offers to "share the burden" have started to come in. The paper concludes with a reflection on prospects for change and what they might mean for stability in Tajikistan.


African Development Fund - Republic of Guinea Results Based Country Strategy Paper

The present Results-based Country Strategy Paper for 2005-2009 comes at a time when Guinea has just concluded a 12-month Staff-
Monitored Program (SMP) with the IMF, which is needed for a new PRGF that will enable the country to reach the completion point of the enhanced HIPC Initiative. This strategy was prepared following a results-based approach and is therefore a mechanism for programming Bank activities and monitoring their impact. The interventions described in the interim strategy will concentrate on two areas of focus, namely: (i) consolidation
of infrastructure that boosts growth; and (ii) improvement of basic social services.